Round Two: The Brewers and Dodgers Meet Again in the NLCS
Last October, Los Angeles swept Milwaukee. This year, the Brewers have the better record, home field and a payroll less than half the size.
For the second year in a row, the National League pennant runs through Milwaukee and Los Angeles. The Brewers beat the Padres in four games, and the Dodgers beat the Braves in four, setting up an NLCS rematch that starts Sunday night at American Family Field.
Last year's version wasn't close. The Dodgers swept the Brewers in four games on their way to a second straight World Series title. But the numbers say this one could be different.
By the numbers
103
Brewers regular-season wins, the NL's No. 1 seed
4–3
Brewers' edge over the Dodgers in 2026 meetings
0–4
Brewers in last year's NLCS against L.A.
17
Jackson Chourio's postseason RBIs, a Brewers record
How they got here
NLDS · Brewers def. Padres, 3–1
Brewers 3, Padres 1 (Game 4, Oct. 7, Petco Park)
Milwaukee won Games 1 and 2 at home, dropped Game 3 in San Diego, then closed it out on the road, snapping a streak of 12 straight road playoff losses. Garrett Mitchell was everywhere in the clincher: an RBI single, a leadoff triple that set up the go-ahead run and a leaping catch at the wall that robbed Manny Machado of a game-tying homer. Jackson Chourio's RBI single gave him a franchise-record 17 postseason RBIs, and Trevor Megill earned the save.
NLDS · Dodgers def. Braves, 3–1
Dodgers 4, Braves 1 (Game 4, Oct. 7, Truist Park)
The Dodgers' offense lived on the long ball. All 10 of their runs before Game 4 came on home runs. In the clincher, they finally broke through another way: Andy Pages, who had gone hitless in 20 straight plate appearances with runners in scoring position, lined a two-run single in the seventh to break a tie. Los Angeles has now won five straight road playoff games, tying a franchise record.
Why this time could be different
Brewers
- Home field: Games 1 and 2 are in Milwaukee
- A rested bullpen: Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill should all have three days off
- Jacob Misiorowski starts Game 1 after a full rest
- Christian Yelich was 5-for-14 in the NLDS
- They own the regular-season series: 4–3 this year, including a four-game series win at Dodger Stadium in August
Dodgers
- The rotation of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow that held Milwaukee to one run per game last year
- Experience: their third straight NLCS, chasing a three-peat
- Power: all 10 of their runs before NLDS Game 4 came on homers
- Shohei Ohtani is hitting only this time, and he's been cold: 2-for-13 in the NLDS after a .566 OPS in September
Last year's sweep was built on Ohtani. In the clinching Game 4, he threw six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and hit three home runs. This year he won't be on the mound, and his bat has gone quiet. If the Dodgers want the pennant, someone else has to carry them.
The economics of it
This series is a perfect case study in efficiency. Entering opening week, the Dodgers' payroll was about $322 million, second-highest in baseball. The Brewers' was about $125 million, 19th. That's roughly 2.6 times as much money.
Now divide payroll by wins. The Dodgers spent about $3.2 million per win to reach 100 wins. The Brewers spent about $1.2 million per win to reach 103. In economic terms, Milwaukee got nearly three times the output per dollar.
One caveat: the Dodgers' real spending is even higher than that payroll figure suggests. Shohei Ohtani's contract defers $680 million of his $700 million, which lowers the payroll number on paper. Deferrals are a smart financial tool (money paid later is worth less today), but they don't change the fact that L.A. outspends almost everyone.
My unfiltered take
The Brewers have been the better team all season, and they beat the Dodgers in their own ballpark in August. But October is about short series and big arms, and nobody has more of those than Los Angeles. If Misiorowski can win Game 1 at home and the Brewers' bullpen stays fresh, Milwaukee has its best shot at the World Series in decades. If the Dodgers' rotation looks like last year's, we could be watching the same ending. I'm leaning Brewers in seven, but I wouldn't bet against the Dodgers.
Landrey
